Democrats are running Vice President Harris for president in 2024. She’s been by President Biden’s side for the last four years and is his hand-picked successor. Republicans are running former President Trump, who held the office from 2017 to 2021. It’s unusual to have a presidential election where both¹ candidates already know their way around the White House. This means we have the rare opportunity to make an apples-to-apples² comparison between them. Skip the pearl-clutching about gaffes, tweets, and crimes³. Between the current administration and the former, who did the job better?

To be clear: this is a big question. The president runs a million-person bureaucracy, commands the most powerful military in history, drives the legislative agenda, and more. Each dimension of the job is important in its own way. Cherry-picking wins and losses doesn’t do it justice.

So let’s be systematic. Below, we’ve broken down presidential responsibilities into a handful of categories. For each category, we can lay out a few of the most notable policies of each administration. Then we can judge the priorities of each administration, as well as its ability to get things done.

COVID Response

Context: Past presidents have been defined by their response to war, depression, and terrorism. The Trump and Biden/Harris administrations were faced with the worst pandemic in a century plus a global economic crisis.

The federal government under Trump took COVID seriously. Trump personally did not. His mismanagement of the crisis led to tens of thousands of preventable American deaths.

• Trump signed $3,200 billion in spending for vaccine development, paid leave, and direct support for Americans and businesses. The vaccine development program in particular was an incredible success, saving an estimated 140,000 American lives.
• Trump also undermined the credibility of the US pandemic response. He downplayed the severity of the virus, contradicted public health officials, and elevated anti-vaccine conspiracy theories. Pro-Trump areas saw lower vaccination rates and higher death rates. The estimated impact is over 70,000 preventable American deaths.
• Trump also impeded COVID response globally. He withdrew US membership from the World Health Organization during the pandemic, along with billions in funding. He also ran a propaganda campaign to discourage vaccination in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

The Biden/Harris administration made federal COVID response an immediate priority upon taking office. Their policies were competent and effective.

• Democrats passed an additional round of direct payments to Americans on top of the bipartisan bill Trump had signed a few months earlier. This made pandemic support in the US more generous that in most of Europe. Critics worried that so much spending would cause the economy to overheat. In fact the US saw a smoother recovery than any other wealthy nation: lower unemployment, lower inflation, faster GDP growth, and faster wage growth (especially for low-income workers).
• They also invested billions more dollars in testing and vaccination. They campaigned on a promise to distribute 100 million vaccine doses in their first 100 days in office, then did so in half that time. They also donated 700 million vaccine doses globally.

The COVID-19 pandemic killed over a million Americans. It also upended both the economy and day-to-day social interactions. Photo by Michael Walter

Working with Congress

Context: As the head of government, it’s the president’s job to set the agenda and work with Congress to get it done. Laws signed by a president can impact Americans for decades after the president leaves office, as can the federal judges they nominate.

Trump nominated anti-abortion judges and signed a big tax cut, in line with past Republicans. But he struggled to get his own priorities through Congress, such as infrastructure or the border wall.

• Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — $1,500 billion tax cut which mostly benefited the rich. The onset of the pandemic makes it hard to judge the long-term effects, but similar tax cuts in the past have not delivered economic growth. This bill also ended the Obamacare individual mandate.
• Trump nominated 200+ federal judges, who will have the power to interpret and strike down laws for decades. His nominations created a conservative supermajority⁴ on the Supreme Court, allowing them to overturn Roe v Wade; this had been a long-term goal of social conservatives. Abortions are now banned in many states, even in the case of emergencies.
• First Step Act (bipartisan) — Criminal justice reform which reduced mandatory minimum sentencing, ended solitary confinement for minors, mandated de-escalation training for correctional officers, and more. This bill also included $0.4 billion for rehabilitation programs to reduce recidivism. Over 3,000 prisoners were released early in the first year.
• Trump faced off with Congress over funding for a wall on the US-Mexico border, resulting in the longest federal government shutdown in US history. About 400,000 federal employees were furloughed for over a month. Trump ultimately went around Congress by redirecting funds from elsewhere, sparking numerous lawsuits. By the end of his term, he had built 50 miles of the proposed 1,300 mile wall.
• Trump signed $20 billion in federal aid to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria in 2017. But his administration delayed distribution of that aid, and also blocked an investigation into the causes of the delay. Maria was among the most extreme hurricanes on record, killing 3,000 Americans and causing $100 billion in damage.

Biden and Harris have a strong legislative record. They passed several large bills with bipartisan support, as well as a party-line bill to advance Democratic priorities.

• Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (bipartisan) — $1,200 billion to modernize roads, bridges, public transit, broadband, and so on. Infrastructure spending has been an elusive long-term goal of both parties.
• Inflation Reduction Act — $500 billion for clean energy, the largest such investment in history. Spending was offset by an estimated $700 billion from closing corporate tax loopholes and cracking down on wealthy tax cheats. The bill also capped the cost of insulin for seniors.
• CHIPs and Science Act (bipartisan) — $300 billion to strengthen domestic high-tech manufacturing and supply chains. This was, in part, a response to the worldwide chip shortage during COVID. Chip manufacturing in the US has nearly doubled since.
• Safer Communities Act (bipartisan) — $10 billion for school safety, first responders, and crisis intervention programs. This bill also strengthened background checks and red flag rules. This was the first federal gun law in 30 years.
• They nominated 200+ federal judges, including one to the Supreme Court. These judges will have the power to interpret and strike down laws for decades. The judges are mostly women. About half of them have previously worked as civil rights lawyers and public defenders.

Immigration and the Border

Context: the president is in charge of immigration and refugee resettlement. They are responsible for securing the border⁵ against drug trafficking, processing asylum claims, and turning back unauthorized crossings. They also have the power to deport undocumented immigrants from within the US, though the situation is complicated⁶.

Trump reduced immigration and refugee resettlement across the board. He also attempted, unsuccessfully, to increase deportations.

• The Trump administration reduced legal immigration by about 10% compared to Obama’s second term. Between green cards, immigration visas, relative visas, and refugee resettlement, that’s about 300,000 fewer people from 2017-2019 (excluding 2020-2021 due to COVID). He completely blocked entry from Muslim-majority nations, though courts pushed back.
• Trump separated children from their families in an attempt to deter unauthorized crossings. Thousands of children (including infants) were held in federal custody. Family separation was not effective as a deterrent. He spent billions on additional barriers at the border, which were also not effective. He finally deployed troops to the border to support CBP. Overall CBP apprehended fewer people per year under Trump than they did under Obama; this likely reflects root causes more than US policies.
• Trump repeatedly narrowed eligibility for asylum. Less than 1% of claims were approved under Trump, compared to 20% before. He also made minimal use of parole, which allows asylum seekers to stay (and seek work) in the US while waiting for their case to be heard. Instead, applicants waited in encampments in Mexico.
• Trump attempted to rescind DACA, an Obama-era policy that granted provisional legal status to undocumented immigrants who arrived as children before 2007. The Supreme Court blocked Trump’s order on procedural grounds. He also expanded the authority of ICE to perform arrests and deportations from within the US. Even so, ICE deported fewer people per year under Trump than under Obama.

Biden/Harris rolled back Trump’s most extreme border policies, but didn’t do much to move the ball forward. They tried, but failed, to pass comprehensive immigration reform.

• The Biden/Harris administration ended family separation, ended the Muslim ban, stopped construction of the border wall, reaffirmed DACA, and resumed the use of parole for asylum seekers.
• They made it possible for people to apply for asylum remotely to mitigate the logjam at the border. Nearly a million people have done so. They also maintained several Trump-era border policies such as deploying troops to the border, denying asylum for those who have crossed illegally, and closing the border during COVID. Overall, CBP deported more people per year than they had under Trump. This likely reflects root causes more than US policies; unauthorized crossings spiked post-COVID, then fell in 2024.
• They ordered ICE to halt arrests and deportations from within the US, with the exception of violent criminals. Deportations by ICE fell by about half compared to Trump.
• Biden/Harris negotiated a bipartisan immigration reform bill to combat drug smuggling and speed up the asylum process. Republicans withdrew support for the bill at Trump’s request.

The US-Mexico border is 2,000 miles long. The government uses a combination of fencing, patrols, and technology to reduce unauthorized crossings. Photo by Greg Bulla

Foreign Policy

Context: The president is in charge of the Department of State, which conducts diplomacy on behalf of the world’s largest economy. They also command the most powerful military in human history. Much of the current world order is built on this strength. The US deters Russian expansion in Europe as well as Chinese aggression against Taiwan. We also have a complicated relationship in the Middle East, where we have a history of both fighting⁷ and mediating⁸.

Trump’s foreign policy broke sharply with decades of bipartisan consensus. In particular, he was openly skeptical of NATO, and unconditionally supportive of Israeli expansion into disputed land.

• Trump helped normalize relations between Israel and several Arab states. But he also broke decades of precedent with his disregard for Palestinian sovereignty. He withdrew US support for a two-state solution. He endorsed settlements on disputed land. He halted humanitarian aid to Palestine. And he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, exacerbating a long-standing obstacle to peace.
• Trump signed $400 million in military aid to Ukraine to fend off aggression from Russia, but blocked its distribution. He suggested that the US might neglect its NATO treaty obligations if Russia invaded Europe. He also echoed Putin’s denial of Russian interference in US elections, contradicting FBI reports.
• He withdrew the US from TPP, a trade deal meant to balance China’s influence in the Pacific. He then imposed large tariffs on imports from China, as well as smaller tariffs worldwide. Retaliatory tariffs hit US agricultural producers hard, necessitating a $28 billion bailout. Overall, the trade war cost American consumers $72 billion. There was no lasting impact to US-China trade patterns.
• Trump held talks with Canada and Mexico to update NAFTA. The biggest change was an improvement to working conditions and labor rights in Mexico. This will likely help American workers in the long run, since they’ll no longer need to compete with such low wages.
• Trump negotiated with the Taliban to set a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. As part of the agreement, Trump released 5,000 imprisoned Taliban fighters and withdrew US support from the elected Afghani government (which was not included in negotiations). By the end of Trump’s term, 80% of US troops had returned home.

The Biden/Harris administration prioritized multinational agreements to counter aggression from Russia and China. They also faced criticism for their support of Israel during its brutal war in Gaza.

• The Biden/Harris administration $18 billion in military aid to Israel after the October 7th attack and during the subsequent Israel-Hamas⁹ war. They also leveraged the close US-Israel relationship to pursue peace. They talked Israel back from the water siege of Gaza. They built a temporary port for faster delivery of humanitarian aid. They partially withheld arms over excessive civilian casualties. Despite these efforts, the civilian toll in Gaza is catastrophic. Democratic voters and legislators have pushed the administration to take stronger action.
• Biden/Harris led the international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They signed $175 billion in military and humanitarian aid. But they refused to impose a no-fly zone, in order to avoid direct conflict between two nuclear-armed nations.
• They strengthened relationships with Australia, India, Japan, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, and South Korea in response to the growing strength of China and North Korea.
• Biden/Harris completed the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, ending twenty years of occupation. The Taliban attacked during the final stages of the withdrawal, killing thirteen American soldiers and toppling the elected Afghani government.
• They dramatically reduced the use of drone strikes, particularly in Yemen. The US continues to launch drone strikes elsewhere, such as in Somalia, where the government has asked for international help combating terrorism.

Executive Effectiveness

Context: The president leads the executive branch of the federal government, which has over a million employees. They hand-select department heads and sign executive orders to steer priorities.

Trump’s executive actions were generally in line with past Republican presidents. He strengthened support for employers and businesses. He made cuts to the safety net, labor protections, borrower protections, and environmental protections.

• Trump ended Obamacare funding for insurance subsidies and enrollment outreach, saving the government about $7 billion; the number of uninsured Americans rose by 5 million. He saved another $1 billion with new requirements around food stamps; 700,000 low-income Americans lost benefits.
• Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Accords to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He also rolled back Obama-era fuel efficiency standards, and retaliated with an antitrust probe when some automakers voluntarily kept to the stricter standards. Trump’s policies saved businesses about $100 billion in compliance costs, but the average new car in 2026 will average 40 MPG, down from 46 MPG¹⁰ under the previous policy.
• Trump tightened eligibility for overtime pay, making millions of working-class Americans ineligible. This policy cost Americans an estimated $1 billion in lost wages per year.
• Trump waived penalties for banks that engaged in discriminatory, deceptive, or abusive practices. CFPB enforcement under Trump averaged only $0.3 billion per year (compared to $2.3 billion per year under Democratic administrations).
• Trump’s FTC sued several tech companies for anti-competitive behavior. This is the largest anti-monopoly effort in decades. The lawsuits are still in progress, and likely will be for years.

The trademark executive action of the Biden/Harris administration was student loan forgiveness. They also supported labor rights, loosened marijuana policy, and took steps to combat climate change.

• Biden/Harris forgave $160+ billion in student debt for over 5 million borrowers, despite push-back from the Supreme Court. They also put new regulations in place to expose colleges and universities that do not lead to gainful employment.
• The NLRB under Biden/Harris has made it easier for workers to organize. Union membership is up, and 2023 was the biggest year for strikes in decades. The administration also declined to use federal authority to break a high-profile port strike in 2024.
• Biden/Harris expanded overtime pay for 4 million Americans. The estimated impact is $1.5 billion in additional wages per year.
• They rescheduled marijuana from Category I (heroin, LSD) to Category III (ketamine, testosterone). They also pardoned thousands of Americans imprisoned for nonviolent drug offenses.
• Biden/Harris rejoined the Paris Climate Accords. They also put a plan in motion to decarbonize the federal government. The federal fleet of 600,000 cars and trucks is projected to be zero-emission by 2035, and the 300,000 federal buildings will run on renewables by 2050.

Constitutional Integrity

Context: The Constitution lays out the process for elections and the peaceful transfer of power. It’s the foundation upon which the entire government is built. The president is sworn to uphold it.

Trump brazenly put his own political power above his oath to the US Constitution. His efforts to overturn the 2020 election were particularly chilling. If the president has the power to ignore election results, then elections no longer matter.

• Trump fired the head of the FBI, seemingly to disrupt an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. A special counsel was appointed to follow up. The resulting report did not charge Trump with a crime, but also did not exonerate him. It showed numerous contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian government officials. It also showed that Trump repeatedly attempted to exert “undue influence” to disrupt the investigation. Several men were convicted of lying to the FBI and witness tampering. Trump later pardoned them.
• As president, Trump publicly asked Ukraine and China to interfere in the 2020 election in his favor. He withheld military aid from Ukraine in an attempt to blackmail them into fabricating dirt on his political opponents.
• Trump baselessly denied the legitimacy of his 2020 election loss, and attempted to overturn the results to remain in power. He called the top election official in Georgia and pressured him to lie about the results. He recruited electors in seven states to submit fraudulent results. And he incited a mob to storm the capitol and disrupt the certification of his loss. Had his efforts succeeded, it would have been the end of the republic. Elections are meaningless if the president has the power to ignore them.

Trump’s actions were unprecedented in American history. Biden and Harris have done nothing remotely comparable.

• Obama and Biden left office without incident after Trump won the 2016 election. As VP, Biden certified Trump’s victory.
• As president, Biden/Harris passed updates to the election process to close the loopholes Trump attempted to exploit.
• The Biden/Harris administration appointed a special counsel to investigate conspiracies around the 2020 election. Trump has been indicted, but the trial will not complete before the 2024 election.

Trump denied his election loss in 2020 and attempted to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power. Photo by Tyler Merbler

Summary

Trump advanced some right-wing priorities: he signed a tax cut for the rich, nominated anti-abortion judges, and cut regulation on businesses. He scored a few nonpartisan wins too, such as criminal justice reform and updates to NAFTA. But he often seemed to care less about policy outcomes and more about picking fights. Americans paid the price over and over for his belligerence. He undermined the pandemic response of his own administration. He blocked aid to Americans after a devastating hurricane. He clobbered farmers by starting a trade war with China. He caused the longest federal shutdown in history. And, worst of all, he attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 election through fraud and violence.

The Biden/Harris administration advanced some left-wing priorities: they forgave billions in student debt, strengthened unions, and passed a huge investment in clean energy. They also earned some criticism, especially for failing to restrain Israel’s war in Gaza. But overall they were a steady hand on the wheel after four years of chaos. They led the US through a smoother COVID recovery than any other nation. They passed landmark investments in infrastructure and manufacturing. They scaled back US engagements in the Middle East. And they strengthened America’s relationships with global allies.

Either Harris or Trump will be president next year. Please vote to help ensure it’s the better one.

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1. Under a parliamentary system, like in the UK, there can be three or more viable political parties. They form coalitions to create a majority government. The Electoral College makes that nearly impossible in the USA. Credible politicians here stick to the two major parties; third parties are full of grifters and clowns. For example, despite 30+ years of attempts, the Green Party has never won any election for state or federal office. Jill Stein, the Green candidate for president, has a laughably weak résumé: she served one-and-a-half terms on city council. ↩

2. Presidential candidates are typically senators or governors. Senators know about federal lawmaking, but lack executive experience. Governors have executive experience, but it’s at the state level rather than federal. ↩

3. Trump was convicted of business fraud after leaving office. Not ideal, obviously, but history shows that sometimes a slimeball can be an effective president. Just look at LBJ or Bill Clinton. Better to judge Trump by the performance of his administration. ↩

4. Conservative justices usually time their retirements so that a conservative president can nominate their replacement, and vice versa. For better or worse, this preserves the ideological makeup of the Supreme Court. The court moved right under Trump because liberal justice RBG died and was replaced with a conservative. ↩

5. A person fleeing violence or persecution can present themselves at the US border and request asylum. A judge will hear their case and, if legitimate, grant them legal entry to the US. The number of asylum requests has skyrocketed in recent years due to instability in Central America. The system is overloaded. Asylum seekers can wait months to see a judge. And they don’t all sit patiently; more people at the border also means more unauthorized crossings. ↩

6. There are about 10 million undocumented immigrants living in the US. They mostly arrived between 1990 and 2007 due to economic conditions in Mexico. At this point they have families here. They pay their taxes and don’t cause trouble. Not to mention, they make up a sizable portion of the American workforce, particularly in the agriculture and construction industries. ↩

7. The US was sporadically engaged in the Middle East in the 20th Century. Since 9/11, it’s been continuous. The US occupied Iraq from 2003 to 2011 and Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021. The US also conducted drone strikes in half a dozen countries to disrupt militant groups such as ISIS and al Qaeda. In some cases (such as Libya and Somalia), the governments asked for US assistance against militants. In other cases (such as Pakistan) US strikes defied local authorities. ↩

8. President Carter hosted talks which led to the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama all pursued a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. US diplomats also mediated the 2012 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. ↩

9. European antisemitism and Jewish nationalism drove large-scale Jewish immigration to the Levant in the 18th and 19th centuries. The land was part of the Ottoman empire, than later the British empire, and mostly inhabited by Arabs. After WWII, the UN proposed two states: Palestine (Arab) and Israel (Jewish). Arab states rejected the partition plan. Israel declared independence. Wars ensued, which Israel won. Decades later, much of the region remains hostile to Israel. Militant groups such as Hamas launch terrorist attacks (rockets, suicide bombers, sexual violence) and use human shields to deter retaliation. Israel uses those attacks to justify its occupation, and to block the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state. Experts have called this the world’s most intractable conflict. ↩

10. Americans buy about 15 million new cars per year. The average car in the US drives about 14,000 miles per year. That comes out to just over 10 trillion miles driven in a new car in the decade 2017-2027. Let’s say gas costs about $3 per gallon. At 37 MPG (today’s new car average) that’s $850 billion in fuel. Without Trump’s policy change, the average would be closer to 43 MPG, in which case that same number of miles would cost $730 billion. ↩